US inflation, Iran conflict lower odds of Fed cut by June 2026
US March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year and PCE climbed 3.5%; crude topped $100 after fighting in Iran and markets price a June 2026 Fed cut at 2.3%.
US consumer inflation accelerated in March. Headline CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year and the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 3.5% year-over-year. Oil futures moved above $100 per barrel after renewed fighting in Iran.
Prediction market contracts now place the odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut by the June 2026 meeting at 2.3%, down from about 3% over the previous 24 hours. Contracts that predict high gold prices for May 2026 show YES odds near 1.9%, down from roughly 3% in the same span.
Energy price increases tied to the Iran fighting and related disruptions to regional oil supply contributed to the rise in consumer prices. Crude price gains passed through to retail energy and transportation costs, affecting headline inflation measures.
The Federal Reserve’s stated inflation target is 2%. March readings for CPI and PCE remained above that target.
Market participants are watching upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings, scheduled public remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the next CPI and PCE releases, and developments in the Iran conflict that could alter oil output. Changes in those indicators could shift market pricing for the timing of rate adjustments and for commodity contracts such as gold.
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