U.S. blockade halts Iran’s seaborne crude for 28 days

Ship-tracking data compiled by TankerTrackers shows no recorded Iranian crude shipments by sea in the past four weeks after a U.S. naval presence began intercepting and redirecting vessels in April.

Iranian loading activity at Kharg Island, the country’s main crude export terminal, has been disrupted by a suspected oil spill that officials and analysts say has complicated tanker loading and port operations.

There have been no verified reports of direct naval combat in the Gulf as of May 12. Shipping companies have rerouted calls to Gulf ports, and several tankers expected to load Iranian grades were reported turned back or sent to other destinations.

Maritime insurers, charterers and traders are monitoring satellite imagery, automated identification system signals and port notices for changes in vessel movements and port activity.

Prediction-market prices show a reduced probability of normal traffic. A contract tracking whether ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on May 31 is priced at about 45% YES. A market on traffic returning to normal by May 15 is priced near 0.2% YES. A separate contract assessing whether Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by June 30 is priced at about 8.5% YES.

Observers are watching diplomatic statements and military orders from senior officials and regional energy ministers for updates on patrol patterns, sanctions enforcement and export coordination. Any official notices about Kharg Island cleanup or repair work and any change in naval patrol posture are being followed for signs of resumed loading or altered transit patterns.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key shipping chokepoint; the current combination of U.S. naval interdiction and operational disruption at Kharg Island has reduced visible seaborne exports from Iran and altered routine tanker routing and port calls.