Trump Prioritizes Iran Nonproliferation; May Deal Odds Fall

President Trump told officials that stopping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is his top priority and indicated economic considerations would not shape his approach to the U.S.-Iran conflict. A White House summary described his priority as “preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.” The conflict, which escalated into open hostilities in early 2026, has combined military activity with ongoing diplomacy.

Negotiators have been discussing a phased memorandum of understanding intended to halt fighting and address Iran’s uranium enrichment. The administration has publicly pressed for strict nonproliferation terms in those talks, and negotiators have not announced a final agreement.

Prediction markets responded to the statements and developments. The market for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 was priced at 8.5% yes, down from 10% a day earlier. A separate contract on whether the U.S. would obtain Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 was priced at 6.5% yes, up from 6% the previous day. Longer-dated contracts showed higher probabilities: a U.S.-Iran deal by Dec. 31, 2026, was priced at 52.5% yes, and the chance the U.S. obtains Iranian enriched uranium by Dec. 31 was 26.5% yes.

Market prices reflected lower near-term odds for a settlement that would resolve enrichment questions before the end of May and higher odds of a possible agreement later in the year. Traders adjusted short-term and long-term contracts in separate moves over the same 24-hour period.

Diplomats, analysts and other observers identified several developments that could change market odds: renewed mediation by the European Union, public statements from Iran’s leadership, changes in on-the-ground military activity, the imposition of new sanctions, or any formal announcement of progress on a phased ceasefire or verification mechanisms for enrichment.

Background: the U.S.-Iran confrontation intensified in early 2026, prompting talks aimed at stopping fighting and resolving disputes over uranium enrichment. Prediction markets have been used by some investors to track expectations about the timing and terms of a diplomatic outcome.