Trump: Iran-Israel ceasefire ‘on life support’; oil tops $105

President Trump described the Iran‑Israel ceasefire as “on life support,” and crude oil futures climbed above $105 per barrel as traders reassessed the risk of renewed supply disruptions in the Middle East. Market participants added a geopolitical premium to oil prices after months of relative stability.

The truce was brokered by the United States and Qatar on June 24, 2025, to halt the Twelve‑Day War between Iran and Israel. The agreement survived early violations and carried through much of 2025 into 2026 while U.S. diplomacy and Qatari mediation continued to support the arrangement.

Traders reacted quickly to the president’s remark, pushing front‑month Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures higher. Crude crossing $105 represented a recalculation of the likelihood that the conflict could again affect oil flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one‑fifth of the world’s daily oil trade.

Before the price jump, oil had traded in a relatively contained range while the ceasefire appeared to hold. The move past $105 reflected buying that hedged against a worst‑case supply scenario rather than the creation of new risks.

Higher oil prices feed into consumer energy costs and are part of the inputs central banks monitor when planning interest‑rate moves. A sustained rise in crude can influence inflation data and, in turn, the timing of rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Oil price spikes also tend to strengthen the dollar because energy purchases are dollar‑denominated; a firmer dollar can affect other asset classes.

During the original Twelve‑Day War in June 2025, digital assets such as Bitcoin saw sharp swings as investors moved between risk‑on and risk‑off positions. Market participants will watch diplomatic activity, military movements in the region, and statements from Tehran and Jerusalem for signs on whether the truce can be maintained or will deteriorate further.