Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 18, 2026

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.46% on June 18, 2026, while the 2-year note finished at 4.19%. These yields reflect current pricing in the U.S. government debt market for those maturities.

Market participants continue to monitor the shape of the yield curve and expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Historical series track daily Treasury yields alongside the Federal Funds Rate back to 2007, and a longer record traces the 10-year yield to 1965 for broader context.

The widely watched 10-year minus 2-year spread has been a focus because it has been negative ahead of past recessions. That spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last recorded negative reading on September 5, 2024. Measured from the first date the spread turned negative, the average lead time to a recession is about 48 weeks. Using the last positive spread date before a recession, the average lead time is about 18.5 weeks.

A shorter-term comparison, the 10-year minus 3-month spread, was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024. Since February 26, 2025, that measure has fluctuated between positive and negative. Lead times for the 10-year/3-month spread after it turns negative have ranged from roughly 34 to 69 weeks. From the first negative date the average lead to recession is about 48 weeks; using the last positive reading after a negative period yields an average of about 13 weeks.

Mortgage rates have tracked broader rate movements. The Federal Reserve began cutting its policy rate in September 2024. Mortgage rates have declined more recently, with the latest Freddie Mac survey showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.47%.

Investors use Treasury-focused exchange-traded funds to gain exposure across maturities, including funds that cover 0-3 month bills, intermediate-term and long-term Treasuries. Traders and portfolio managers continue to watch daily yield changes, curve spreads and Fed policy expectations as they reassess positions across the fixed-income market.