Tesla slips under $400 as Q2 delivery forecasts rise

Shares of Tesla slipped below $400 in early U.S. trading, falling 1.6% to $398.66. The decline followed updates from Wolfe Research and Goldman Sachs that raised second-quarter delivery forecasts to about 420,000 vehicles.

Wolfe Research projects roughly 420,000 deliveries for the quarter, about 10% more than a year earlier and above the Wall Street consensus near 400,000. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to 420,000 from 405,000 earlier in the week.

Wolfe expects second-quarter automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits in the low-18% range, up from 17.7% in the first quarter, and projects earnings per share of about $0.50 to $0.52 versus a consensus of $0.45.

Analyst Emmanuel Rosner at Wolfe Research wrote that a large portion of Tesla’s market value reflects investor confidence in longer-term projects, including robotaxis, humanoid robots and ancillary AI services. He warned that deployment timelines appear slower than previously expected, writing that “ramp curves are shallower than previously expected, most notably in robotaxi.”

Wolfe pointed to intensifying competition in autonomous efforts, citing planned expansion by Waymo into 20 cities this year and Mobileye’s target to deploy 100 robotaxis by 2027, along with increased humanoid robot activity from other firms. Rosner also addressed investor speculation about a potential Tesla-SpaceX transaction, writing that market assumptions of an eventual merger have supported the stock but adding any deal is unlikely before mid-2027.

Separately, Dutch road authorities reported that about 40,000 Tesla vehicles in the Netherlands began using the company’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software after approval in April. Those vehicles have collectively logged roughly 24 million kilometers without any serious incidents, the regulator stated.

The Dutch agency classified the system as a driver-assistance technology that requires drivers to remain attentive and ready to intervene. It reported about 3,000 hours of testing on tracks and public roads in varied weather and indicated it will monitor the system monthly rather than through the usual annual reviews. The approval has led to provisional clearances in Belgium, Denmark, Estonia and Lithuania.