Starmer faces calls to quit as markets price 55.5% exit

Keir Starmer faces growing calls to resign after the Labour Party lost control of at least 35 councils in early May local and regional elections. The defeats were concentrated in northern England and the Midlands. Labour won a large majority in the 2024 general election.

More than 40 Labour MPs and some cabinet members have demanded either Starmer’s resignation or a clear timetable for a leadership contest, according to party figures. There were no official announcements from Starmer at the time of reporting.

Prediction markets priced the chance of Starmer leaving by June 30, 2026, at 55.5%, up from about 32% roughly 24 hours earlier. Markets that track the next UK prime minister in 2026 put Andy Burnham’s odds at about 39.1%. Markets tracking Reform UK’s performance in the local elections showed little change.

Party insiders said the scale of the council losses and the rapid market reaction increased pressure on Labour’s leadership to set out plans. Observers are watching for any formal move to trigger a no-confidence vote or to open a leadership contest. Statements from Deputy Leader Angela Rayner and cabinet figures including Wes Streeting are expected to be scrutinized for indications of the party’s course.

Labour sources described the results as setbacks in areas that had been considered safe. Starmer’s agenda, including efforts to deepen ties with the European Union and his handling of international developments such as tensions in the Middle East, were referenced in internal discussions after the vote.

The coming days will focus on whether Starmer offers a timetable for stepping down, whether a formal challenge is launched, and on further market movements.