SpaceX staggered lockup will release large insider stakes

SpaceX shares rose from the $135 IPO price to as high as $225 before recent pullbacks. The company’s IPO framework sets a staggered lockup that begins after its first quarterly report, expected in late July or early August. At that point 20% of insider shares become eligible for sale, or 30% if the stock remains above $175.

About 639 million shares are available for trading out of more than 13 billion outstanding under the IPO structure. The schedule calls for 7% tranches on Aug. 20, Sept. 9, Oct. 9 and Oct. 24. An additional 28% unlocks after second-quarter earnings, and the remaining shares become eligible after Dec. 8, the 180-day mark.

Trading research firm AgentSmyth reported elevated activity in September put options on SpaceX, a pattern traders use to position for downside as new shares become tradable. The introduction of stock options and the launch of leveraged products tied to SpaceX, including the Direxion SpaceX Bull 2x ETF, have already generated hedging flows and rebalancing trades connected to the stock.

SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 under a fast-entry rule that allows inclusion after 15 trading days. Analysts estimate that index inclusion could bring between $7 billion and $10 billion of buying from passive funds that track the benchmark.

Past IPO lockup expirations have affected prices. Rivian’s shares fell about 21% around its 2022 lockup expiration. Reddit’s stock declined ahead of a performance-based lockup release before later stabilizing.

Longer-term valuation will depend on SpaceX’s earnings and revenue performance. Founder Elon Musk previously set a $1 trillion revenue target for 2031. Market participants are watching the staggered unlock dates, options activity and index-related flows as the first quarterly report approaches.