SpaceX lists at $135 on Nasdaq; $1.77T valuation splits analysts

SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq under the SPCX ticker at a fixed IPO price of $135 a share, valuing the company at about $1.77 trillion as it seeks to raise $75 billion. The listing took place on Nasdaq on the day of the IPO and follows months of preparation for what is expected to be the largest initial public offering in history.

The company combines commercial rocket launches, the Starlink satellite internet service and ambitions in artificial intelligence infrastructure tied to xAI and planned orbital data centres. Starlink is viewed as the main near-term revenue source, while the AI and orbital projects are described by the company as longer-term opportunities that will require additional investment and development.

Analysts have offered a wide range of valuations. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, valuing SpaceX near $2.5 trillion over 12 to 18 months; Horan wrote that the company is “the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent.” New Street Research set a 12‑month target of $165 and described a more aggressive scenario with shares reaching $330 if SpaceX captures large shares of markets for Starlink, AI compute and orbital infrastructure. ARK Investment Management and other firms have also published bullish forecasts, and Morgan Stanley projected long-term revenue as high as $3.4 trillion by 2040 in some scenarios.

Other analysts value the company more conservatively. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens placed fair value at about $780 billion and wrote that investors “will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO.” NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran used a discounted cash flow approach that put fair value closer to $1.2 trillion. Internal modeling at Goldman Sachs indicates SpaceX would need very large revenue growth — about $474 billion by 2030 in one scenario — to support a near-term valuation close to the IPO level.

Recent financials show volatile results. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 after a profit in 2024, and filings show a $4.3 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026 even as quarterly revenue rose to about $4.7 billion. Investors and analysts cite Starlink as the primary revenue driver for the next several years and note that AI compute and orbital data centre projects remain early-stage and technically challenging.

Market structure could affect early trading. The IPO was reportedly about four times oversubscribed, with orders near $250 billion against the $75 billion raise. Only a small portion of shares will be available to trade at launch, creating a tight float. Horan warned of an “initial demand/supply imbalance on SPCX shares given broad retail demand and accelerated index inclusion.” A Nasdaq rule change could allow a company of SpaceX’s size to qualify for Nasdaq-100 inclusion within 15 trading days, which could prompt passive funds that track the index to buy shares.

SpaceX has a staggered lock-up schedule that allows some holders to sell parts of their stakes after 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days. That schedule creates multiple dates when additional supply could enter the market. Early trading is likely to reflect both the differing analyst valuations and the short supply of shares available to public investors at the start of trading.