SpaceX IPO Splits Analysts: Targets $165 vs $63

SpaceX’s initial public offering is expected to price at $135, valuing the company near $1.75 trillion. The offering is set to price on Thursday with public trading beginning Friday. Investor demand exceeded $250 billion in orders for about $75 billion of shares, roughly 3.5–4 times oversubscribed.

SpaceX operates commercial rocket launches and the Starlink satellite internet network. Management has public plans for orbital data centers and long-term human settlement on Mars.

New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu opened coverage with a $165 price target, implying about 22% upside from the expected IPO price and valuing SpaceX at about $2.3 trillion. Ferragu’s 2030 forecast includes roughly $195 billion in revenue and $65 billion in operating profit. He attributes about $650 billion of value to Starlink-related activities and about $575 billion to AI-related opportunities; his note projects shares could reach as high as $330 if those businesses develop fully.

Informal markets showed similar optimism. Perpetual futures tied to SpaceX traded near $163 on a crypto trading platform before the listing.

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens assigns a fair value of $63 per share, about 53% below the expected IPO price. Owens wrote that much of the offering’s implied value comes from speculative future projects rather than current operations. His base-case assumes orbital data centers work at a minimum viable scale with a 50% probability. Under that scenario, SpaceX might capture about 4% of global AI computing capacity and generate roughly $47 billion in annual AI-related revenue by 2035.

Owens’ optimistic scenario values SpaceX at about $1.97 trillion, near $154 per share, if orbital data centers prove technically and economically superior to terrestrial facilities. His pessimistic scenario, assigned a 43% probability, assumes such projects fail or are not commercially viable and that the company would stop them after significant investment, with potential project cuts around 2028.

Owens highlighted an atypical lockup arrangement for the IPO. Certain existing shareholders, excluding Elon Musk, will be allowed to sell portions of their holdings within weeks of the listing and periodically through December, rather than facing a standard six-month restriction. He warned earlier selling could increase available supply and affect short-term price stability. Formal analyst reports from banks involved in the deal remain limited until after the listing.

The public listing will provide market pricing for SpaceX’s current businesses and for its planned projects, and analysts remain divided on how those projects should be valued.