SpaceX 4x Oversubscribed IPO May Have Muted Nasdaq Debut

SpaceX attracted roughly $250 billion in orders for a $75 billion initial public offering priced at $135 a share, a book that amounts to about a fourfold oversubscription. The company, led by Elon Musk, expects to finalise pricing on Thursday and begin trading on Nasdaq on Friday.

The IPO used a fixed price rather than a price range. Under that structure, excess demand determines how shares are allocated among investors rather than increasing the offer price. Institutional investors frequently request multiples of the shares they expect to receive, a practice that raises oversubscription figures without guaranteeing equivalent buying once shares trade on the open market.

A perpetual futures contract tied to SpaceX on a crypto derivatives platform fell about 27% from mid‑May to June 10, sliding from roughly $216 to about $157. That synthetic price remained above the $135 IPO level, narrowing the implied first‑day premium from roughly 60% in mid‑May to about 16% by June 10. The contract is leveraged, trades around the clock and does not represent an actual share.

Short seller Jim Chanos described SpaceX as “not worth” a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation and called the offering a “hopes‑and‑dreams IPO.” Investor Steve Eisman raised concerns about the company’s AI ambitions, noting capital spending rose to 215% of revenue in the first quarter of 2026 from 42% in 2023 and adding, “It’s not even space that’s so hard. It’s the AI.”

On the buy side, analyst Pierre Ferragu began coverage with a $165 target and outlined a scenario that could push the stock to $330 if SpaceX executes across Starlink internet services, commercial launch operations and AI‑related infrastructure.

Because bankers cannot lift a fixed offer price during bookbuilding, the headline order total mainly reflects allocation pressure. In traditional IPOs, strong demand can prompt underwriters to raise a price range before listing, which adjusts investor expectations ahead of secondary‑market trading; that mechanism was not used here.

Other factors that may affect early trading include investor appetite for high‑valuation companies relative to sales, and broader market risk sentiment. The company’s valuation metrics and recent capital spending figures have been cited by both critics and supporters as central to assessing investor demand.

Pricing is due Thursday and shares are scheduled to start trading on Nasdaq on Friday. The order book, the fixed‑price structure, the movement in synthetic futures and public commentary from market participants are all present as observable inputs ahead of the debut.