SoFi stock may be bottoming after $17B market hit

SoFi Technologies’ market value has fallen roughly $17 billion, from nearly $40 billion in November to about $22.7 billion, and the shares are down about 32% year to date. The slide accelerated after a short-seller report alleged an unrecorded $312 million debt, aggressive accounting, understated credit losses and financial maneuvers tied to bonus targets.

The company’s outstanding share count rose to about 1.28 billion from 805 million in 2021. Earlier this year SoFi completed a $1.5 billion capital raise intended to strengthen the balance sheet and support growth plans. Equity issuances increased the share count and are a factor investors are considering when assessing the stock.

Since Anthony Noto became chief executive in 2017, SoFi expanded its product set from three offerings to a broader consumer finance platform. The company now lists personal loans, mortgages, credit scores, an investing platform and a credit card. SoFi relaunched a crypto trading service with more than 25 coins available and introduced a U.S. dollar‑backed stablecoin called SoFiUSD, which the company said aligns with the GENIUS Act.

Recent operating results show revenue of $1.1 billion, a 41% year‑over‑year increase, and adjusted EBITDA of $340 million, up 62% to a record high. Membership rose 35% to 14.7 million customers and total originations reached $12.2 billion. Analysts project revenue of about $4.6 billion this year, rising to $5.7 billion next year. Consensus estimates place earnings per share near $0.58 this year and about $0.78 by 2027. With projected revenue growth near 30% and a profit margin around 14%, SoFi’s rule‑of‑40 metric is near 44%.

Technical analysts point to a double‑bottom around $14.97 and a neckline near $20; the stock has risen above its 50‑day exponential moving average. Some traders view a sustained move above $20 as a breakout with a potential target near $25. Other market participants cite the short‑seller allegations and the larger share count as reasons for continued caution.