Saylor predicts 30% Bitcoin returns, proposes payout fund

Michael Saylor told audiences he expects Bitcoin to gain roughly 30% per year for the next 20 years and proposed a “Bitcoin capital gains fund” that would deliver dividend-like payments tied to Bitcoin appreciation rather than keeping all holdings on the company balance sheet.

Under the proposal, the fund would convert realized increases in Bitcoin’s market value into periodic cash distributions. Payouts would be linked to how much the price has risen, which would require scheduled sales of some Bitcoin to generate cash for investors.

Strategy, the company Saylor leads and formerly known as MicroStrategy, holds roughly 500,000 bitcoin. The company has raised more than $30 billion in equity and debt financing since it began buying bitcoin in 2020. Projections tied to Strategy’s STRC share offerings indicate that a 20% issuance could fund the purchase of about 144,000 additional bitcoin in a single year, a near 29% increase in holdings.

The company’s stated policy has been to buy more bitcoin than it sells. Equity raises, debt issuance and other financing have been directed at expanding the bitcoin position, a strategy that would conflict with a fund structure requiring periodic sales to pay distributions.

Institutional investors such as pension funds and endowments have cited the lack of yield as a barrier to adding Bitcoin. A vehicle that converts price gains into regular cash payments could address that specific concern, but the fund’s structure and the consistency of payouts will determine whether income-focused allocators participate.

Risks include shareholder dilution from continuous equity issuance to buy additional bitcoin and the potential for increased selling pressure if distributions are funded by realized gains. If Bitcoin’s price stalls or falls, newly issued shares would not be offset by rising asset values. Market participants will watch whether the capital gains fund is formally launched, how distributions would be calculated and paid, how often payouts would occur, and whether they would be funded through periodic sales of bitcoin.