Romanian PM Ilie Bolojan ousted after no-confidence vote

Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan was removed from office after a no-confidence vote in Romania’s parliament that was backed by the Social Democratic Party and the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). Coalition talks to form a new government have begun in the legislature.

Lawmakers from the Social Democrats and AUR voted together to bring down the administration. The vote ended a pro-European cabinet led by Bolojan and broke a long-standing practice of excluding far-right parties from governing coalitions.

Negotiations are under way to name a successor or to install an interim cabinet until a new majority is secured. Members of the National Liberal Party (PNL), which had been part of the previous coalition, could defect and affect parliamentary arithmetic.

Prediction markets adjusted after the vote. The market for “Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?” was priced at 99% YES, while the market for an exit by June 30 was priced at 86.7% YES.

Markets tied to a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire showed little movement in response to the Romanian vote and remained focused on developments in that conflict.

Observers are watching negotiations between the Social Democrats and AUR for signs of who will lead the next government and whether other parties will join a coalition. Officials and financial institutions in the European Union and beyond are being monitored for statements while talks continue.