Retirement Wave Could Lower RIA Valuations, Advisers Warn

Two founders of M&A advisory firm Green Sail Capital Partners, Ryan Kaminski and Chris Gent, warned that registered investment adviser sale prices could reverse within five years as a large number of advisor retirements adds supply to the market. Research firm Cerulli projects 26,000 advisors at RIAs and independent broker‑dealers will retire over the next decade.

Kaminski and Gent base the forecast on an aging cohort of firm owners. They argue that if many owners decide to sell within a short period, the number of firms for sale could exceed buyer demand and put downward pressure on transaction multiples.

Kaminski called the current market ‘like a bubble.’ Gent observed that offers often follow precedent and that a lower price on one deal can change expectations for subsequent sellers.

Industry data show transaction multiples have risen in recent years. Advisor Growth Strategies reports the median price offered for RIAs increased from 11 times EBITDA in 2024 to 11.6 times EBITDA last year, about 40 percent higher than in 2020.

Kaminski suggested valuations for many smaller firms could contract toward levels seen in other small-business sectors, perhaps seven to eight times EBITDA, even if headline medians remain elevated.

Corey Kupfer, a lawyer who handles M&A for RIAs, argued a broad market collapse is unlikely in the near term. He noted the retirement wave has been discussed for years and has not yet materialized at scale, and many advisors continue working later in life. Kupfer also pointed to an expanding buyer pool that includes family offices, foreign wealth managers, hedge funds and private equity-backed roll-up platforms.

Buyers are growing more selective. Roland Kastoun, leader for asset and wealth management deals at PwC, said acquirers place a premium on firms that demonstrate organic growth and differentiated capabilities, such as access to private equity, credit and other alternative investments. With market gains inflating assets under management, buyers are separating growth driven by investment returns from growth driven by new or retained client relationships.

Industry concentration could influence future prices. Cerulli data show RIAs with $5 billion or more in client assets held 54 percent of the industry’s total AUM in 2024, up from 34 percent in 2018. Kaminski warned that as large aggregators expand and begin buying one another, competition among bidders for attractive targets could decline.

Experts noted median multiples do not guarantee a high price for every seller. Strategic acquirers pursuing a specific capability may pay premiums, while private equity-backed roll-ups that buy many firms to scale may value targets differently. Sellers with consistent organic growth, a pipeline of younger advisors or access to alternatives are more likely to command top valuations.

Kaminski recommended owners who plan to sell begin preparing several years in advance to ensure continuity and avoid leadership gaps, saying buyers generally prefer transactions that allow a smooth transition of client relationships.