Pentagon logs $30B on Iran ops; markets price war risk

The Pentagon reported nearly $30 billion in costs for U.S. operations against Iran. The figure was disclosed after President Trump renewed threats to target Iranian infrastructure and covers activity that began in February 2026.

U.S. strikes in February targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites and coincided with the killing of Iran’s supreme leader. Kinetic operations paused in May, but a U.S. naval blockade remains in the region and parts of the campaign are being described by officials as continuing at a high level of intensity.

The Pentagon’s spending disclosure lists direct operational costs and reflects ongoing military commitments in the area.

A prediction market contract on whether the United States will officially declare war on Iran by Dec. 31, 2026 traded at 7.5% yes, up from 6% a day earlier. Traders raised the price after the Pentagon disclosed the spending and following renewed threats from the president.

WTI crude oil markets for May 2026 also moved. Several sub-markets increased, with the contract for oil reaching $110 in May priced at 57.5% yes. Traders cited the naval blockade and continued military activity as potential sources of supply disruption.

Observers flagged specific items likely to influence both geopolitical risk assessments and oil prices: statements from President Trump and Iranian leaders, any change in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on supply forecasts.

A formal declaration of war would require action by the U.S. Congress. Current market pricing reflects traders’ assessments of political and military trajectories rather than any completed legislative step.