Oppenheimer: Cursor Deal Could Value SpaceX at $3T

Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan said SpaceX’s $60 billion purchase of AI coding firm Cursor could push the company’s valuation toward $3 trillion and set a $250 per-share target for year-end, implying roughly 40% upside from current levels.

In a research note, Horan pointed to Cursor’s user base and software as the main drivers behind the revised valuation. He highlighted a database of more than one million users and an operational software layer designed to support automated coding agents as assets that could integrate with SpaceX’s computing and engineering operations.

Oppenheimer cited Cursor’s recent revenue growth in support of its view. The firm estimated Cursor’s annual recurring revenue rose from about $1 billion last year to a $4 billion run rate and projected it could reach $6 billion by the end of 2026. Based on those figures, Oppenheimer raised its fourth-quarter AI sales forecast for SpaceX by $4 billion to $8.75 billion.

SpaceX shares have declined in recent sessions but remain about 25% above their IPO price at the time of the note. If the stock reaches Oppenheimer’s $250 target, SpaceX’s market capitalization would exceed $3.2 trillion, putting it among the largest public companies by market value.

Horan wrote that the acquisition could benefit both firms: Cursor would gain access to SpaceX’s compute for model training and inference, while SpaceX would acquire engineering, data and a captive base of expert developers that could support tighter integration of compute, software and developer demand.

The analyst said successful integration of Cursor’s technology and user base into SpaceX’s platform will determine whether the projected revenue and margin improvements occur. Oppenheimer’s updated models reflect a shift in how the firm values SpaceX, placing greater weight on potential AI infrastructure revenue alongside its existing satellite and aerospace operations.