Nvidia options surge lifts AI stocks; May 15 expiry risk

Nvidia’s stock rose 18% over ten days in April after large volumes of call options led dealers to buy the underlying shares as hedges. That hedging added direct demand for Nvidia and for other AI-related semiconductor stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF, SOXX, rose about 37% in April. Options traders are pricing in roughly a 10% move in Nvidia by the end of May.

A large block of options expires on May 15, 2026. At expiry, the hedging flows that supported recent gains will largely stop. If call positions are closed or allowed to lapse, dealers will stop or reverse their hedges, which may increase selling pressure.

Crypto assets tied to AI also rose alongside equities. TAO, the native token of the Bittensor network, nearly doubled in March. Bittensor reported $43 million in revenue for the last quarter. Polychain added about $200 million to its TAO holdings, and both Grayscale and Bitwise filed for spot TAO exchange-traded funds in the first quarter of 2026.

Prediction markets placed Nvidia’s chance of being the world’s largest company by market value on June 30 at about 68.5%, down from higher levels earlier in the month after a late-April tech selloff. Nvidia has an upcoming earnings report that market participants will monitor.

Broader factors could influence market reactions around the expiry. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation pressure can push bond yields higher. Higher yields have historically correlated with weaker returns in growth and technology sectors.

Traders and portfolio managers are watching options flows, earnings and macro data in the coming weeks to gauge whether dealer hedging continues or reverses. The May 15 expiry is a mechanical event that will remove a known source of hedging demand.