Netanyahu’s coalition files to dissolve Knesset over Haredi draft

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition submitted paperwork to dissolve the Knesset next week, citing an unresolved dispute over exemptions from mandatory military service for Haredi yeshiva students.

Coalition leaders described the dissolution as an effort to shape the rules and timing of the next election after months of stalled legislation on conscription exemptions. The government requires backing from ultra-Orthodox parties for the dissolution vote; those parties have not formally committed to support the measure.

The immediate cause is a long-running legislative fight over whether and how to exempt yeshiva students from mandatory service. Ultra-Orthodox parties have pushed for broad exemptions. Other coalition members and opposition figures have sought tighter limits or steps to integrate yeshiva students into the draft. Those disagreements have delayed key votes and budget measures.

Opposition figures have formed a new “Together” alliance led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Political operatives cited recent polling showing some voters view Bennett as a more viable prime ministerial candidate than Netanyahu. The alliance plans to present a unified challenge in any early election.

Prediction markets show growing uncertainty about Netanyahu’s political future. A market tracking whether he will be out of office by the end of 2026 rose to 52.5% from 51% the previous day. A separate market on whether Netanyahu will be the next prime minister after the coming election held at about 40.5% over the past week.

Key developments to watch include the result of the Knesset dissolution vote and the level of support from ultra-Orthodox partners, whether the “Together” alliance can consolidate votes and run an effective campaign, and any shifts in public opinion or formal coalition agreements. The broader security environment in the region may also affect voter behavior and coalition bargaining.

Netanyahu’s current term has seen narrow legislative margins and repeated disagreements with coalition partners, particularly on religion-and-state matters. The Haredi conscription debate has prompted protests and legal challenges in prior years.