Israeli strikes cut Israel-Iran peace odds, raise airspace risk

Israeli strikes on research facilities at Iranian universities in recent days have reduced prediction market odds that Israel and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 to 16.5%. The market contract betting that Israel will close its airspace by May 31 is priced at 30.5%.

The Israel Defense Forces carried out the strikes, targeting infrastructure linked to scientific and technological programs. Israeli officials described the operations as intended to degrade Iran’s research capabilities. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued threats directed at American universities in the Middle East and demanded that the United States condemn the strikes.

Market listings show the “Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026” contract at 16.5% YES with little movement from the previous day. The “Israel closes its airspace by May 31” contract is quoted at 30.5% YES, down from 32% the day before. Contracts on a return to Iran by exiled prince Reza Pahlavi are at 3.3% for June 30 and 12.5% for December 31. Volume data for these markets were not reported.

Market trackers classify the strikes as having a high impact on the peace-deal contract and a moderate impact on the airspace-closure probability. Markets’ pricing reflected increased threats and military activity; daily price movement on the contracts has been limited.

Officials and analysts identified statements and actions by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with any diplomatic or military responses from the United States and regional governments, as factors that could affect market prices and security measures. Further reporting on the locations and scale of the strikes, any retaliatory steps, and official responses will be monitored for effects on civilian systems such as air travel.