Iran sails ships through Strait of Hormuz as U.S. talks stall

Iran sailed multiple vessels through the Strait of Hormuz without interference while talks in Washington over lifting a U.S. naval blockade stalled. The transits occurred as Tehran urged BRICS nations to condemn U.S. and Israeli actions and as tensions between Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem have continued since hostilities began on Feb. 28, 2026.

The movements took place despite a U.S.-imposed blockade and Iranian countermeasures that have included naval mines and armed drones. U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in recent talks that collapsed over disputes about security guarantees and recognition of Iranian sovereignty. Washington has not issued a formal declaration ending the blockade.

Analysts estimate about 20% of global oil trade has been affected by the conflict and related naval restrictions. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major chokepoint for energy exports. Shipping companies, traders and governments have monitored vessel movements and routing for signs of changes to maritime risk.

Prediction market contracts tracked by observers show a 23.5% probability that President Donald Trump will announce the blockade lifted by May 31, down from 24% a day earlier. A separate contract on whether at least 20 ships will transit the Strait on any day by May 31 is priced at 60% for a YES outcome. Contracts tied to full traffic normalization are lower, with a May 15 return-to-normal contract near 0.1% and a late-May normalization contract around 6.5%.

Traders and market participants noted that the practical reopening of transit lanes has coincided with higher probabilities for increased ship movements, while the absence of a formal U.S. announcement has kept odds for an official lift lower. Market sources said further military actions or diplomatic signals from either capital could move those prices quickly.

The BRICS summit in India on May 14-15 will be watched for any statements from Iranian delegates. Public remarks or policy moves by President Trump or senior Iranian officials, any escalation at sea, or diplomatic breakthroughs would likely affect shipping patterns and market expectations in the near term.