Iran restores missiles near Strait of Hormuz

U.S. intelligence officials report Iran has rebuilt the majority of its missile capabilities along the Strait of Hormuz, including systems positioned to reach commercial shipping lanes in the waterway.

An assessment shared with senior U.S. officials concluded Iran has recovered a significant portion of its prewar missile stockpile and repositioned launch systems after the February 2026 strikes on Iranian sites by U.S. and Israeli forces. The assessment was circulated amid a contested ceasefire and continued regional hostilities.

Officials briefed on the assessment say the restored missile posture creates increased tactical risk to international shipping and adds complexity to U.S. military planning in the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel that carries a substantial share of global oil shipments; missiles with range into that area have the potential to affect maritime traffic and naval operations.

Prediction market indicators moved following the intelligence report. A market asking whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027 is priced at 27.5% for a yes outcome, up from 20% a week earlier and down slightly from 28% in the prior 24 hours. A separate market on whether Project Freedom would restart by May 15 is priced at 1.8% yes, down from 6% the previous day, while the May 31 submarket is priced at 38.5% yes, up from 34%.

Military and intelligence officials have limited public comment on specific capabilities and timelines. There has been no public declaration that Project Freedom has been reactivated.

Developments that could alter assessments include formal announcements from the White House, public statements or alerts from the Pentagon or U.S. Central Command, observed troop or naval movements in the region, and additional intelligence on Iranian inventories or site damage. Diplomatic contacts between Tehran and Washington and any updates to the ceasefire arrangements are also factors that could affect planning and market perceptions.