Hormuz blockade pushes investors into Bitcoin, silver

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments since February 2026. Prediction markets currently price a 52.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $85,000 by May 31 and a 15.2% chance that silver will reach $120 by June 30.

The blockade is tied to hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The interruption of traffic through the narrow Gulf waterway has reduced the flow of energy supplies and coincided with higher energy costs. Businesses in the United Kingdom’s manufacturing and construction sectors report higher input prices that are affecting margins and production planning.

Prediction market pricing for the May 31 Bitcoin contract fell from about 62% a week earlier to 52.5% on the latest reading. Short-term contracts for silver through June show a rise in bullish pricing, with the probability of silver reaching $120 increasing from roughly 4% a week ago to about 15.2% now.

Analysts tracking these markets classify Bitcoin’s market response as moderate and silver’s as higher. Bitcoin contracts reflect demand for asset classes tied to inflation expectations while short-term volatility and trading flows remain significant. Silver contracts show increased investor interest in precious metals in the current environment.

Prediction markets tied to other events show little change. Contracts estimating SpaceX’s IPO closing market cap display low odds across a range of strike prices and limited trading volume, indicating little market impact from the regional conflict on that offering.

Market participants say several developments could alter current positions. A diplomatic agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz would reduce the immediate supply disruption. U.S. policy decisions related to the confrontation and the Federal Reserve’s policy discussion and any interest-rate guidance in June may affect inflation expectations. Traders continue to monitor commodity prices and fund flows into cryptocurrencies and precious metals for signs of persistent repositioning.

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for global oil and LNG shipments. The disruption that began in February 2026 created an immediate supply shock; the duration of effects will depend on how quickly maritime traffic can resume and whether alternative supply routes can compensate. Historically, both Bitcoin and silver have seen increased investor interest in periods of higher inflation or heightened geopolitical risk; current prediction market prices provide a near-term snapshot of market expectations.