China Pulls Ships from Strait of Hormuz as Beijing Opposes Tolls

Chinese state-owned vessels withdrew from the Strait of Hormuz by May 15, according to prediction-market data and public statements attributed to former U.S. President Donald Trump. The departure involved ships flagged to or owned by Chinese entities and was reported during a period of heightened attention on Iranian proposals to charge fees for ships passing through the waterway.

Iran has proposed levying tolls on vessels transiting the strait, a policy that has affected commercial traffic through the passage that handles a large share of seaborne oil flows to global markets. U.S. officials have emphasized freedom of navigation in the strait and have deployed military assets to the region in recent months. Chinese officials have publicly expressed opposition to the toll plan, and the withdrawal removed some Chinese-flagged or state-owned vessels from the area.

Prediction-market data showed short-term shifts in energy pricing expectations after the withdrawals. A contract tied to May WTI crude recorded a YES price of 2.4%, down from 3% in the previous 24 hours. A separate market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal on May 15 held at 0.1% YES with no change in the past 24 hours. The market probability that traffic would normalize by the end of May registered higher than the May 15 contract, at 7.5% for May 31.

Observers noted that further public statements from Chinese and Iranian officials and any formal adjustments to Chinese maritime policy would be indicators to watch. U.S. military and diplomatic responses, daily shipping reports from the strait and near-term oil-price movements were also identified as key items to monitor for updates on maritime traffic and regional tensions.