CENTCOM: US Ready to Resume Strikes as Iran Deal Odds Drop

Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, told lawmakers the United States is prepared to resume strikes on Iran if diplomatic talks fail. CENTCOM assesses it retains overwhelming military superiority and is ready to resume offensive operations. His remarks came as Pakistan is mediating talks after U.S. military action that heavily damaged Iran’s naval forces. A ceasefire that has largely held since April 8 remains punctuated by occasional clashes and a naval blockade.

Prediction markets moved after the CENTCOM statement. The contract betting a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 is priced at 7.5%, down from about 12% within 24 hours. A contract on whether the U.S. will carry out strikes in one or more countries in 2026 is priced at 31.1%, down from 34% but up from 29% a week earlier. A contract that Iran will surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by Dec. 31, 2026, is priced at 43.5%, down from about 46% in the same 24-hour window.

U.S. officials have not provided a public timeline for any resumption of offensive operations. Iran has given mixed signals about making nuclear concessions. The Pakistan-facilitated talks remain the main diplomatic track. The ongoing naval blockade and sporadic skirmishes affect the security environment and complicate the logistics of diplomacy.

Observers are watching for formal statements from U.S. or Iranian negotiators, any shifts in CENTCOM deployments or operational language, and potential involvement from European mediators. Market prices for short- and longer-dated contracts have moved in response to statements about military readiness and progress in talks.