Bitcoin holds $80,000 as prediction markets signal support

Bitcoin traded around $80,000 as prediction markets assigned specific probabilities to near-term price thresholds. Markets priced a 99.8% probability that Bitcoin would remain above $72,000 on May 13, a 50.5% probability of reaching $85,000 by May 31, a 2.4% probability of a new all-time high by June 30, 2026, and a 0.4% probability of hitting $115,000 in May 2026.

The price held amid a rise in U.S. inflation and weaker equity markets. Traders cited macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, including elevated oil prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict, as factors affecting risk appetite. Market participants are monitoring Federal Reserve statements for potential effects on asset prices.

Short-dated prediction contracts showed high odds for support near current levels, while longer-dated contracts assigned low probabilities to returning to prior record highs before the summer. The market snapshot did not include trading volume or liquidity figures.

Prediction markets aggregate bets on specific price thresholds and expiry dates. They reflect the balance of positions at the time prices were observed and do not guarantee outcomes.

Developments to watch in the coming weeks include changes in geopolitical tensions, movements in oil and energy prices that could influence inflation readings, Federal Reserve announcements on interest-rate policy, and institutional or regulatory news that could alter market expectations.