Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin at $126K by Feb. 28, 2026

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of the Maelstrom fund, forecasts Bitcoin will break above $90,000 and reach $126,000 by Feb. 28, 2026. Hayes referenced a recent trading range for Bitcoin between about $80,793 and $89,368.

Hayes bases the forecast on what he describes as a $9 trillion expansion in the U.S. money supply, which he expects will push liquidity into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

He identified two additional demand drivers: large-scale capital spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and financing linked to potential geopolitical tensions that he compared to wartime funding. Hayes expects those factors to converge and trigger a bullish phase beginning around Feb. 28, 2026.

He described the $126,000 target as a “foregone conclusion” and predicted Bitcoin would “explode” past $90,000. He projects a further rise to $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2026 if Federal Reserve policy continues to expand liquidity.

Hayes said a longer-term price of $1 million is possible if U.S. money printing remains sustained and aggressive, but he framed that outcome as conditional on specific policy choices.

He flagged a potential near-term pullback to the $80,000–$90,000 range, attributing it to profit-taking and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy, and described that zone as a possible pause before any further upside.

Maelstrom’s portfolio reflects Hayes’s outlook. The fund holds concentrated, high-risk positions in Bitcoin and in several altcoins, including HYPE, ZE and NEAR. Altcoins have historically outperformed during Bitcoin-led rallies and declined more sharply during downturns.

Hayes provided explicit price targets and a timeline while linking those projections to macroeconomic developments and central bank policy rather than presenting them as guarantees.