Advisor retirements could cut RIA sale prices within five years

Ryan Kaminski and Chris Gent, founders of M&A adviser Green Sail Capital Partners, warn that a large wave of advisor retirements could increase the supply of registered investment advisers for sale and reduce the prices buyers pay over the next five years.

The forecast rests in part on research from Cerulli Associates projecting about 26,000 advisors at RIAs and independent broker-dealers will retire over the coming decade. Cerulli’s data show these retiring advisors often hold larger books of business than younger breakaway advisors, which could bring substantial assets to market if owners decide to sell.

Kaminski described the situation as “like a bubble,” arguing that a sudden jump in listings would reduce competition among buyers and pull bid multiples lower. Gent pointed to how buyer expectations influence pricing, saying that when observed offers drop from, for example, the low-20s in EBITDA multiples to the high teens, other buyers tend to follow.

Market data show median deal multiples for RIA transactions have risen in recent years. Advisor Growth Strategies reports the median price offered moved from 11 times EBITDA in 2024 to 11.6 times last year, about 40% higher than in 2020. Kaminski cautioned that headline multiples may not protect sellers if a large excess of supply arrives and buyers cannot absorb all opportunities.

Some valuation projections from Kaminski suggest RIA multiples could fall toward levels common in comparable small-company transactions, which he estimated around seven to eight times EBITDA.

Not all advisers share that view. Corey Kupfer, an M&A lawyer for RIAs, said the retirement wave has been discussed for more than a decade and has not yet produced the volume of forced sales some predict. Kupfer noted many advisors continue working later in life and pointed to a widening buyer base that includes RIAs, family offices, multi-family offices, U.K. wealth managers entering the U.S., and hedge funds.

Kupfer also highlighted continued private-equity investment in large acquirers. He described a market dynamic in which private capital fuels platform growth through acquisitions with the expectation of higher exit valuations, and he cautioned that fresh buyer capital reduces the chance of a broad oversupply driving prices sharply down in the near term.

Buyers are increasingly evaluating factors beyond assets under management, industry observers say. Roland Kastoun, who leads asset and wealth management deals at PwC, noted that acquirers are placing more value on firms that demonstrate organic growth-new assets from existing or new clients-rather than gains driven only by market returns. Firms offering clients access to alternatives such as private equity and credit may command higher prices than basic wealth managers.

Consolidation among the largest acquirers could alter competition for top targets. Cerulli’s figures show RIAs with $5 billion or more in client assets held 54% of industry AUM in 2024, up from 34% in 2018. Kaminski said reduced numbers of large buyers could lower the pressure to pay premium multiples if major aggregators begin acquiring one another.

Given these uncertainties, Kaminski urged owners considering an exit to plan timing carefully and to factor in buyer preferences for continuity and advisor pipelines. He recommended that sellers consider exiting earlier than planned to maintain value and avoid succession gaps.