10-year 4.38%, 30-year 4.95%; 10-2 spread tracked

On May 8, 2026 the 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.38%, the 30-year at 4.95% and the 2-year at 3.90%. These yields reflect trading in benchmark U.S. government debt and set reference rates for other parts of the financial system.

An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields. Market participants often track the 10-year minus 2-year spread because that pattern has preceded U.S. recessions in past cycles. The 10-2 spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022 through August 26, 2024; the last negative reading on that series was on September 5, 2024.

Measured from the first date the 10-2 spread turns negative, recessions have begun between about 18 and 92 weeks later. Using the alternative timing of the last positive reading before a recession, the average lead time is about 18.5 weeks. The 1998 episode saw a brief negative reading that did not lead to a recession, and the period around 2009 included multiple flips before the downturn.

A tighter comparison, the 10-year versus 3-month spread, was negative from October 25, 2022 through December 12, 2024. Since February 26, 2025 that spread has moved back and forth between positive and negative. Lead times for recessions after the 10-3 month spread turns negative have ranged from 34 to 69 weeks; averages measured from the first negative date are similar to the 10-2 pattern, while averages measured from the last positive date are shorter.

Federal Reserve policy affects short-term rates. The Fed began cutting the funds rate in September 2024. Mortgage rates did not fall immediately with the start of cuts but have trended lower more recently. The latest Freddie Mac primary mortgage survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.37%.

The 10-year yield has varied widely over decades, including elevated levels during the high-inflation period starting in the 1970s. Investors use Treasury yields to price risk and to form expectations about growth and inflation. Exchange-traded funds that offer exposure to Treasury maturities include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT).

The configuration of the yield curve has preceded past U.S. recessions, and the interval between a negative spread and the start of a recession has varied across historical cycles.