What Could Move Robinhood’s Leveraged ETF HODU?

Robinhood will report second-quarter results on July 29. Traders and investors are watching the company’s update and any management comments on prediction markets and World Cup event-contract volume because the Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF (HODU) seeks to deliver 200% of Robinhood’s daily stock returns.

HODU is designed to amplify a single day’s move in Robinhood shares, so short-term swings in the stock are the primary driver of the ETF’s performance. The fund is intended for tactical, short-term trading rather than buy-and-hold use, since gains and losses can compound over multi-day holding periods.

Analysts have raised targets ahead of the report. Needham maintained a buy rating and increased its price target on Robinhood to $123 from $97, citing strength across cryptocurrency, equities, options and prediction markets and boosting its 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani raised his target to $160 from $130, pointing to increased activity in prediction markets and estimating that event-contract revenue in the quarter could exceed Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue.

The timing of the earnings release matters for traders because it arrives 10 days after the World Cup ended. The tournament produced a surge in event-contract trading. Bernstein estimated the World Cup accounted for roughly 93% of volume on Rothera, the event-contract exchange in which Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group are investors. Rothera has handled only yes/no trades since May and currently represents about 16% of Robinhood’s prediction-market volume. The remaining volume is routed mainly through a partnership with Kalshi.

Investors will look for management commentary on how much World Cup activity boosted volume, whether higher turnover in prediction markets is sustainable, and whether Robinhood intends to shift more activity toward Rothera. Responses on those points will affect revenue composition for the quarter and may influence the stock’s short-term trading.

Other items in the report that investors will track include core retail engagement, transaction revenue from equities and options, and cryptocurrency trading volumes. Any material divergence between results and analyst expectations on July 29 may move Robinhood’s share price and the leveraged ETF tied to it.

Event contracts are outcome-based contracts that settle based on specific results, such as sports or political events. Robinhood offers access to event contracts through partner platforms and its investments in exchanges like Rothera, with Kalshi providing the majority of prediction-market volume for the brokerage.