Weaker jobs data could prime GDE gold-stock ETF

Gold posted weekly gains last week and a softer-than-expected June U.S. jobs report has prompted questions about whether markets have overstated the Federal Reserve’s hawkishness. Some market participants say a change in rate expectations could affect assets tied to bullion.

The WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Equity Strategy Fund (GDE) is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that combines exposure to gold futures with holdings in large-cap U.S. stocks. Movements in gold prices and shifts in monetary policy expectations can both influence the fund’s returns.

When interest rates are high, gold typically faces pressure because fixed-income securities and cash offer higher yields, making non-yielding assets less attractive. If the Fed slows its tightening or signals an easing path, real yields can fall and support higher gold prices, which would affect futures-based funds and products tied to bullion.

Nigel Green, chief executive of the deVere Group, argued that markets may be overestimating the Fed’s path. He noted that investors had been pricing for persistently high rates and a strong dollar, and said softer economic data could prompt a broader reassessment of monetary policy expectations over the next 12 to 18 months.

Market strategists caution that any upward pressure on gold and related ETFs will depend on upcoming data and Federal Reserve communications. Strong labor-market reports or persistent inflation could keep policy tight, supporting higher yields and limiting gold’s upside. Conversely, a sustained pattern of softer data could accelerate a shift in rate expectations that benefits bullion and hybrid products such as GDE.

Investors should consider GDE’s dual exposure: gains from rising gold futures could be offset or amplified by the fund’s equity holdings, which may respond to the same macro signals in different ways. Upcoming employment reports, inflation readings and Fed statements will be key to how markets price interest rates through the second half of 2026.