U.S. Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 31, 2026

On July 31, 2026 the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.75% and the 2-year note finished at 4.28%.

The Federal Funds Rate affects bank lending costs and broader borrowing rates. The Federal Reserve began cutting its policy rate in September 2024. The latest Freddie Mac weekly primary mortgage survey put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.66%, unchanged from the prior week and the highest reading since last August. Exchange-traded funds tied to Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT).

The 10-year minus 2-year yield spread was negative from July 5, 2022 through August 26, 2024. The last negative reading for that spread occurred on September 5, 2024. Using the first date a 10-2 spread turns negative, the historical average lead time to a recession is about 48 weeks. Using the last positive reading before a recession, the historical average lead time is about 18.5 weeks.

The 10-year minus 3-month spread was negative from October 25, 2022 to December 12, 2024 and has swung between positive and negative since February 26, 2025. For the 10-3mo spread, the average lead time to a recession from the first negative reading is about 48 weeks; using the final return to positive territory, the average lead time is about 13 weeks.

A long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965 includes the 1973 oil shock and the period of high inflation and slow growth that followed. Historical data show occasional cases where an inversion did not precede a recession, such as a brief 1998 inversion, and multiple inversions ahead of the 2009 recession.

Daily and weekly Treasury yield data and comparative charts against equity indexes like the S&P 500 are used to track how bond prices reflect expectations for future growth and inflation.