U.S. Treasury yields: 10-yr 4.49%, 2-yr 4.14% (July 2, 2026)

On July 2, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finished at 4.49% and the 2-year yield finished at 4.14%, reflecting market pricing of interest-rate policy and economic data.

The gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields, a widely followed measure of the yield curve, was negative for an extended period from July 5, 2022, through August 26, 2024. The last date that spread was negative was September 5, 2024. Using historical instances, the average lead time from the first date a 10-2 spread turns negative to the start of a recession is about 48 weeks. If the last positive reading before a downturn is used as the starting point, the historical average lead time is about 18.5 weeks.

A shorter-term measure, the 10-year minus 3-month spread, was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024. Since February 26, 2026, that 10–3-month spread has moved between positive and negative readings. Historical averages for that spread show roughly 48 weeks from the first negative reading to a recession and about 13 weeks from the last positive reading after a negative period.

Federal Reserve policy has influenced Treasury yields. The Fed began cutting its policy rate in September 2024. Mortgage rates did not fall immediately after those initial cuts; more recently mortgage rates have declined and tracked the direction of the federal funds rate. The latest Freddie Mac weekly survey reports the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.43%.

Long-term charts of the 10-year yield date back to 1965 and include episodes such as the 1973 oil shock and the inflationary period in the 1970s. Exchange-traded funds linked to Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT). Daily Treasury yield data and federal funds rate history are commonly used to analyze current curve behavior and yield levels.