TSMC Eyes Record Q2 Profit as Nvidia Delay Looms

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. expects second-quarter net profit of about NT$632.6 billion, a 59% year-over-year increase that would mark a fifth consecutive quarterly record. The company will release full results at 2 a.m. ET on July 16.

TSMC has already reported second-quarter sales of NT$1.27 trillion, a 36% rise from a year earlier and slightly above analyst consensus. Any quarterly net profit above NT$572.5 billion would set a new company high. Management had earlier guided to a gross margin of 65.5%–67.5% and an operating margin of 56.5%–58.5%.

Because revenue is public, investors are expected to focus on profit margins, capital spending plans and the company’s outlook for the third quarter. The U.S.-listed shares have risen about 38% year to date; options pricing implies a roughly 5% move either way by the end of the week. The shares closed Tuesday at $420.39.

TSMC manufactures advanced AI processors for Nvidia and supplies chip-on-wafer-on-substrate packaging that pairs GPUs with high-bandwidth memory. Nvidia’s product schedule affects demand for TSMC’s most advanced nodes and its packaging services.

Analysts have flagged a potential slight delay to Nvidia’s Vera Rubin rollout, citing thermal lid issues and delays in qualifying HBM4 memory. A later volume ramp could shift some production and revenue into a different quarter, even if underlying demand remains strong.

Market participants expect the direct financial impact of a timing change to be limited because Nvidia can adjust shipments across product lines. One forecast projects Vera Rubin shipments to begin ramping in July, with roughly 1.7 million to 1.8 million units delivered in 2026, and notes Nvidia could ship more B300 Blackwell systems to offset timing shifts.

Supply-chain checks by several banks continue to show a robust AI demand pipeline. Some analysts say TSMC may raise its full-year revenue-growth outlook from the current forecast of more than 30% if momentum persists.

Capital expenditure guidance is another focus. TSMC previously said 2026 spending would reach the upper end of a $52 billion to $56 billion range. Some analysts expect the company could lift that forecast to about $58 billion to reflect tight equipment availability and planned capacity expansion for advanced logic, memory and packaging; others anticipate management will maintain the existing range.

With sales already disclosed, investors will review profit margins, capital spending and management’s guidance for the second half to assess near-term stock reaction.