Treasury yields snapshot: 10-year 4.69%, 2-year 4.33%

The 10-year Treasury yield finished July 24, 2026 at 4.69% and the 2-year finished at 4.33%, leaving the 10-2 spread positive by 36 basis points. Trading took place in the U.S. Treasury market as investors continued to digest recent economic data and Federal Reserve communications.

The 10-2 spread was negative continuously from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, and last printed a negative reading on September 5, 2024. Using the first date the spread went negative as a reference, the average interval to a recession is about 48 weeks (roughly 11 months). Using the last positive spread date before a recession shortens the average interval to about 18.5 weeks (about 4.25 months). Historical observations show the interval between a negative 10-2 spread and the start of a recession has ranged from about 18 weeks to 92 weeks.

The 10-year minus 3-month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024. Since February 26, 2025 that shorter-term spread has swung between positive and negative readings. Measured from the first negative date, the average lead time to a recession for the 10-3 month spread is about 48 weeks; measured from the last positive date the average lead time is about 13 weeks (roughly three months).

Federal Reserve policy changes have been tracked alongside Treasury yields. The Fed began cutting its policy rate in September 2024 after an extended hiking cycle. Mortgage rates initially moved separately from policy rate cuts but have more recently trended lower in line with declines in short-term policy rates. The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.58%, the highest level since last August.

A long-term view of the 10-year yield extending back to 1965 captures periods before the 1973 oil shock and subsequent stagflation, and spans multiple policy cycles. Market participants use the 10-year as a benchmark for mortgage rates and other fixed-income instruments. Exchange-traded funds that track Treasury sectors include Vanguard’s 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT).

Treasury traders and investors will be watching incoming economic releases, Federal Reserve guidance and Treasury supply plans for further directional clues. The 10-2 spread’s move into positive territory on July 24 follows the inversion period but past behavior shows spreads can reverse multiple times over months.