Treasury Yields: 10-Year 4.55%, 2-Year 4.18%

On July 17, 2026 the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.55% and the 2-year yield at 4.18%. The 10-2 spread was last negative on Sept. 5, 2024 after an inversion that ran from July 5, 2022 to Aug. 26, 2024.

An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields. The 10-2 inversion that began in mid-2022 persisted for more than two years and turned positive briefly in late August 2024.

Negative 10-2 spreads have preceded U.S. recessions in multiple historical episodes. The time from the first negative 10-2 reading to a recession has ranged from about 18 to 92 weeks. Measured from the first negative date, the average lead time is about 48 weeks. Measured from the last positive date before a recession, the average lead time is about 18.5 weeks.

The 10-year minus 3-month spread was negative from Oct. 25, 2022 to Dec. 12, 2024. Since Feb. 26 the 10-3mo spread has swung between positive and negative readings. Lead times from a negative 10-3mo reading to recessions have ranged from 34 to 69 weeks; using the first negative date the average is about 48 weeks, and using the last positive date it is about 13 weeks.

Federal Reserve policy affects banks’ funding costs and broader borrowing rates. The Fed began cutting its policy rate in September 2024. The latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.55%, the highest reading since last September.

Long-term charts of the 10-year yield date back to 1965 and show periods of rising and falling yields across episodes of inflation and multiple Fed cycles. Investors seeking Treasury exposure may use exchange-traded funds that target different durations, including VBIL, VGIT and VGLT.