Treasury Yield Roundup: 10-Year at 4.56% on July 10
10-year Treasury closed at 4.56% and the 2-year at 4.21% on July 10, 2026, with markets tracking yield-curve shifts and Federal Reserve policy.
The 10-year Treasury yield finished July 10, 2026 at 4.56% and the 2-year at 4.21%. Traders and investors followed movements in the yield curve and recent Federal Reserve policy changes during the session.
The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was negative continuously from July 5, 2022 to August 26, 2024, with the last negative reading on September 5, 2024. Historical data show recessions have begun between 18 and 92 weeks after the 10-2 spread first turns negative. Measured from the first negative date, the average lead time is about 48 weeks. Measured from the last positive date before a recession, the average lead time is about 18.5 weeks. The series includes a brief false positive in 1998 and several negative episodes before the 2009 recession.
The 10-year minus 3-month spread was negative from October 25, 2022 to December 12, 2024. Since February 26 the 10-3mo spread has moved between positive and negative readings. Lead times from a negative 10-3mo spread range from 34 to 69 weeks. Measured from the first negative date the average lead time is about 48 weeks; measured from the last positive date after a negative period the average is about 13 weeks. The 10-3mo series also shows the 1998 false positive and repeated negatives ahead of 2009.
The Federal Reserve began cutting the federal funds rate in September 2024. Changes in the funds rate affect bank lending costs and mortgage pricing. Mortgage rates have declined in recent months; the latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.49%.
Long-term charts of the 10-year yield extend back to 1965, offering data that predates the 1973 oil embargo and the stagflation period that followed. Market participants compare Treasury yields with equity measures such as the S&P 500 when assessing valuations and relative returns.
Exchange-traded funds tracking Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT).
Market participants continued to monitor daily Treasury yields, yield-curve spreads and Federal Reserve policy for developments.
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