HomeMarketsTraders Bet SpaceX IPO Could Rise 13%–33% to $2T+

Traders Bet SpaceX IPO Could Rise 13%–33% to $2T+

Posted: 12 June 2026, 13:34 CET 2 min read

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. Prediction markets and derivatives point to a 13%–33% first-day rise and odds of topping $2 trillion.

SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 a share, giving the company an initial market capitalization of about $1.77 trillion ahead of its Nasdaq debut Friday.

Traders on prediction market Polymarket assigned an 84% probability that SPCX will close its first trading day above a $1.8 trillion valuation and a 69% probability that it will exceed $2 trillion. Moving from the IPO valuation to $2 trillion would represent roughly a 13% increase from the offering price.

Alternative trading venues showed larger implied moves. Pre-IPO perpetual futures tied to SpaceX on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid implied an opening share price near $175, about 30% above the $135 offer. More than $200 million of SpaceX-linked contracts traded on Hyperliquid in the 24 hours before the listing, and prices on the platform rose from just above $160 to nearly $185 before easing.

Those Hyperliquid contracts do not grant ownership of SpaceX shares; they allow traders to speculate on the company’s market value before public trading. Hyperliquid is officially unavailable to U.S. users. The contracts are expected to convert into crypto-based instruments intended to track the stock once SpaceX begins trading on Nasdaq.

Derivatives pricing from online brokerage IG implied a market capitalization near $2.4 trillion shortly after trading begins, which corresponds to a share price around $180, about 33% above the IPO price. Market participants are watching opening prices, early trading volume and short-term swings to assess whether actual trading matches pre-market signals.

A valuation above $2 trillion would place SpaceX among a small group of U.S. companies that have crossed that threshold, and would exceed Broadcom’s market value near $1.85 trillion. At the IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would be larger than Tesla, which had a market capitalization of about $1.72 trillion late Thursday.

Friday’s Nasdaq opening session will provide the first public market price for one of the largest and most closely watched initial public offerings in recent history.