TLT Drops as Long-Term Treasury Yields Top 5%
TLT fell to $80, its lowest since July 2025, after 10- and 30-year Treasury yields topped 5%. The ETF drew nearly $10 billion of inflows over the past three months.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell to $80 on Monday, its lowest level since July 2025, and is down about 9% from its high earlier this year. Assets under management rose above $47 billion.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose this week. The 10-year note reached about 5.023%, the highest since 2007, while the 30-year traded near 5.383%, the highest since 2004. The 10-year has climbed from a year-to-date low near 3.92% and from pandemic-era lows around 0.33%.
Investors continued to add to TLT even as its price fell. Over the past three months the ETF attracted nearly $10 billion of inflows, including roughly $3.75 billion in the last 30 days. The fund holds Treasury securities with maturities of 20 years or more, which makes its price sensitive to moves in long-term yields.
Market participants are focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest-rate decision and on fiscal trends. U.S. public debt recently exceeded $40.1 trillion, leaving the debt-to-GDP ratio near 122%. Federal receipts are just over $5 trillion a year while outlays are above $7 trillion. Analysts note that sustained large deficits affect the supply of Treasury securities and longer-term interest rates.
Energy markets provided an additional influence on sentiment. Brent crude traded near $107 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $102 this week as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated. Higher oil prices can feed through to inflation and interest-rate expectations.
On technical indicators, TLT has broken below a support level at $80.93 and is trading beneath its main moving averages and the Supertrend indicator. The ETF’s Relative Strength Index is about 37. Technical analysts identify $79.90, the fund’s low from July last year, as the next level to watch.
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