Tesla stock rises 4% ahead of Q2 delivery report

Tesla shares climbed about 4% to $396.64 on Monday as the company prepared to release second-quarter delivery figures on Thursday. The broader market was higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.3%.

Analysts expect roughly 405,000 vehicle deliveries for the quarter, compared with about 384,000 a year earlier. Morgan Stanley raised its Q2 delivery estimate to roughly 413,000 from about 373,000, citing stronger registration trends in Europe and improving demand in China. Barclays now forecasts about 418,000 deliveries, projecting European deliveries near 90,000 and China deliveries around 135,000. Barclays sees production for the quarter at about 430,000 vehicles and reports inventory levels remain well below the elevated build seen in the first quarter.

On X, Elon Musk announced a new Full Self-Driving software rollout for cars using Tesla’s AI3 onboard computer. Musk wrote, “Nice work by the [Tesla AI team]!” and added, “the AI3 computer only has about 15% of the effective memory bandwidth of AI4, so this was a tough challenge.” AI3 hardware was introduced in 2019; AI4 arrived in 2023 with greater computing capacity. The update could expand the number of cars that can run Full Self-Driving features and apply to Tesla’s $99-per-month subscription service.

Morgan Stanley maintained a $415 price target and lowered forecasts for Tesla’s energy storage deployments, projecting about 11.8 gigawatt-hours for the quarter versus broader Street expectations near 14.3 gigawatt-hours. Barclays kept an Equal Weight rating and a $360 price target, noting investor focus on Tesla’s artificial intelligence projects such as Robotaxi and Optimus while vehicle deliveries continue to generate cash flow for those efforts.

Tesla is scheduled to publish its second-quarter delivery numbers on Thursday, which will provide a regional breakdown of demand and updated production and inventory figures.