Standard Chartered warns mega IPOs could strain US stocks

Standard Chartered warned that planned initial public offerings by SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could drain institutional liquidity and put downward pressure on US stock indices this summer. The bank’s global chief investment officer for wealth solutions, Steve Brice, said the sheer size of the listings will create “digestion challenges” for portfolio managers.

SpaceX is targeting a $1.8 trillion valuation after reporting $18.7 billion in revenue last year. Anthropic has been valued at about $965 billion on an estimated $47 billion revenue run‑rate, and OpenAI’s most recent private valuation was about $852 billion. Standard Chartered estimated the three listings could add roughly $3.5 trillion of equity to public markets.

Brice said he expects a concentrated summer listing cycle. He predicted many institutional investors will sell existing holdings to free capital for the new offerings, which could exert downward pressure on broader indices during the initial phase of the market debuts.

The bank also pointed to supply‑side shocks linked to the US‑Iran confrontation. Standard Chartered reported that Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following a US blockade of Iranian ports, has pushed energy prices higher and forced companies to run down inventories more quickly. “Inventories are being run down at a rapid pace,” Brice noted, and he highlighted impacts beyond crude oil, naming petrochemicals and urea among affected inputs.

Standard Chartered said the combination of a large capital rotation into these mega‑cap listings and tightening supply chains could compress corporate operating margins and increase market volatility. The bank described the effect as likely to weigh on index performance in the short term as portfolio managers rebalance holdings.

Brice said strong US labour data may temporarily support investor sentiment, but added that resilience could fade if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. He expects the initial market weakness tied to the IPOs and energy disruptions to be relatively short lived and described the early pullback as a potential tactical buying opportunity later in the year.

The bank recommended caution for investors in the near term, citing the overlap of large public listings and geopolitical supply shocks as the main factors behind its cautious stance.