SpaceX stock slips 4% as 319M shares become tradable

SpaceX shares dropped about 4% to roughly $147 on Wednesday after the company’s third scheduled lockup tranche made as many as 319 million Class A shares eligible for trading. Another 59.1 million affiliate shares are scheduled to become tradable on Thursday.

At recent prices, the 319 million shares represented about $49 billion of potential supply. The stock has gained more than 7% over the past month, and it closed at $153.47 on Sept. 8, compared with $139.65 before the August unlock.

SpaceX has followed a staggered lockup schedule. About 912 million shares became available on Aug. 6 and 319 million were unlocked on Aug. 20. More than 650 million shares are expected to be released through September, with over 630 million slated for October. By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares could be available for trading.

A large increase in tradable supply on Aug. 6 did not lead to a sustained decline: more than 900 million shares became eligible that day and the stock recovered above its IPO price within days. Market participants are watching whether the latest tranche prompts immediate selling or whether demand absorbs the additional shares.

Analysts note that long-term revenue expectations for SpaceX are closely tied to the Starship program. Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak bases a $220 price target on Starship achieving high levels of reuse. Wlodarczak wrote that the $220 target assumes 20 to 50 flights per vehicle, low refurbishment costs and fast turnaround.

SpaceX says Starship can carry more than 100 metric tons of payload, roughly four times the capacity of its Falcon 9 rocket. The company has conducted two tests of the third version of the Starship spacecraft and its Super Heavy booster. SpaceX has warned that development delays and technical setbacks could continue. The company is preparing for a test that it described as its 14th Starship flight as soon as next week; it has not disclosed specific objectives for that mission. In July, a flight deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites that burned up during planned reentry.

SpaceX has spent at least $15 billion on Starship development and plans further infrastructure expansion, including a new Louisiana spaceport with projected spending of at least $100 billion to support operations. Investors and traders say they will continue to monitor how the lockup schedule and Starship progress affect share supply and demand.