SpaceX faces Sept. 9 lockup expiry as shares climb

About 319 million additional SpaceX shares held by select insiders will become eligible for sale on Sept. 9, marking the 90th trading day since the company’s initial public offering. The release is the third in a staggered schedule that followed earlier unlockings on Aug. 6 and Aug. 20 and precedes a final expiry set for Dec. 8.

The Aug. 6 release made more than 900 million shares liquid without triggering a broad selloff. After that unlocking, the stock rose back above its $135 IPO price and gained about 35% over the following five trading sessions, adding roughly $500 billion to the company’s market value. Shares are trading near $149, about 20% higher than immediately after the first expiry, and the company’s market capitalization is just over $2 trillion.

Analysts’ average price target is near $226 per share, with individual targets ranging widely. Most analyst ratings lean toward buy or overweight; fewer analysts list hold or sell. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $280 and kept an outperform view. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan wrote that SpaceX “has the ability to bring on infrastructure faster than anyone else, and is using this infrastructure and its data to improve its own models faster than anyone else.”

SpaceX reported capital expenditures of $28.5 billion in the first half of 2026, a 308% increase from the same period a year earlier. The company spent $18.4 billion on capital projects in the second quarter, and about 86% of that spending went to AI infrastructure. One estimate projects total AI-related spending could reach as much as $64 billion for the year.

Revenue figures show $7.8 billion in sales for the second quarter, meaning quarterly capital spending exceeded twice that revenue. The company has told investors it expects the investments to generate higher revenue and has set a target of $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026. Regulatory filings indicate some compute revenue depends on agreements with customers that can be terminated with only a few months’ notice.

Analysts describe strong demand for AI computing capacity alongside execution risks. Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann wrote that planned capital spending reflects high demand for AI capacity and added, “You’ve got to spend money to make money,” while noting the company faces operational challenges in delivering on its plans.

For insiders and early employees, the upcoming expiry offers an opportunity to sell shares that were granted when the company’s value was far lower. How many insiders choose to sell on Sept. 9 will affect the pool of available stock and could influence short-term price volatility. The staggered schedule aims to reduce a single surge of supply; each release still creates a new supply and demand question for investors.