SpaceX IPO May Join Nasdaq 100; ETFs’ Direct Impact Small
SpaceX will price its IPO on June 12; Nasdaq 100 inclusion is likely by late June or early July and S&P may shorten its listing wait to six months, Moneyfarm says.
Moneyfarm’s chief investment officer Richard Flax says SpaceX is set to price its initial public offering on June 12 and is likely to join the Nasdaq 100 by late June or early July. He adds that a vote at S&P Global on June 8 could reduce the S&P 500 waiting period to six months and remove the requirement for four quarters of profitability, which could allow SpaceX to qualify for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026 if approved.
Moneyfarm invests mainly through exchange-traded funds that track major indices. The firm notes that index inclusion rules determine how newly listed stocks flow into ETF portfolios. Historically, the S&P 500 required 12 months of trading history and four consecutive profitable quarters for inclusion, while Nasdaq has allowed new entrants sooner.
SpaceX is seeking a valuation near 100 times forward revenue and is currently loss-making. Using typical index rules such as free-float adjustments, Moneyfarm estimates SpaceX would have about a 1.5% weight in the Nasdaq 100.
In Moneyfarm’s model portfolios, the largest Nasdaq exposure is around 5.5% of a 100% equity portfolio. By that calculation, SpaceX would represent roughly 8 basis points, or 0.08%, of an overall 100% equity portfolio. The firm states that level suggests a small direct portfolio impact in the immediate term.
The firm also highlights possible indirect effects. Large IPOs and follow-on share sales can prompt investors to raise cash, which may involve selling other stocks. Other companies preparing or expected to seek public capital include Anthropic and OpenAI, and Alphabet has said it would sell up to $80 billion of shares to fund artificial intelligence investments.
Moneyfarm notes that insider or early investor sales around IPOs can lead market participants to question valuations. The firm cites prior listings that drew similar debate over price relative to long-term prospects.
Moneyfarm says it will monitor index rule changes, issuance volumes and investor flows and will adjust portfolio allocations if conditions warrant. Richard Flax writes that public listings offer investors access to the next phase of growth for companies, while the key assessment for investors remains whether current valuations match long-term prospects.
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