SpaceX $1.75T IPO: Can it make new millionaires?

SpaceX filed a prospectus for an initial public offering that would value the company at roughly $1.75 trillion. The filing asks public investors to buy into a business that reported about $18.67 billion in revenue for 2025 while posting a $4.94 billion net loss for the year.

Founded in 2002, SpaceX operates multiple lines of business including Starlink satellite internet, rocket launch services, government contracts, space infrastructure projects and AI-related operations. The company reported roughly $11.4 billion of 2025 revenue from Starlink. Losses widened in the first quarter of 2026 as spending increased on AI infrastructure and Starship development. The prospectus states SpaceX has a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability.

The IPO price would value SpaceX at more than 90 times 2025 sales. By contrast, Tesla’s 2010 IPO implied a valuation near 15 times sales. The SpaceX filing emphasizes future revenue sources such as a planned expansion of Starlink, AI infrastructure and proposals for orbital data centers, including as many as one million small AI satellites in low Earth orbit.

Valuation estimates from outside analysts vary. Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor, revised his estimate to about $1.3 trillion after reviewing the prospectus, writing, “The prospectus has made the story bigger, but also more volatile.” He added that paying about 100 times revenues raises the risk profile of the investment.

Morningstar’s discounted cash flow model places a value near $780 billion. A separate projection from an investment bank estimates that SpaceX’s AI business alone could generate more than $300 billion in annual revenue by 2030.

Research on past IPOs highlights risks tied to high revenue multiples. Work by finance professor Jay Ritter finds companies that listed at more than 40 times sales often underperformed the broader market in subsequent years; SpaceX seeks to list at more than twice that multiple.

Industry investors and venture figures note loss-making companies can still list. Ruth Foxe-Blader, a managing partner at a venture firm, observed that a project of this scope being loss-making at the time of an IPO is not unusual.

Market mechanics may affect short-term stock performance. Morningstar analysts anticipate strong initial demand driven by a small public float, wide bank support and investor interest in AI infrastructure, and they wrote that Nasdaq 100 inclusion could be possible soon after the IPO. The firm also warned that lock-up expirations, when private investors and employees can sell shares, will be an important test of sustained demand and that later buying opportunities may appear with what they described as greater downside protection for long-term investors.