Shanghai exchange plans futures tied to AI tokens

Shanghai Futures Exchange is designing futures contracts tied to AI tokens that would let companies hedge rising costs for artificial intelligence computing. The contracts would price AI services by reference to tokens, the smallest units of information processed by AI models. Product design is at an early stage and there is no timeline yet for regulatory filing.

The proposal comes as firms report surging demand for compute capacity and as global exchanges prepare related derivatives. Major U.S. exchanges are developing GPU compute futures that reference the cost of renting processing power; Shanghai’s concept would link contracts to token consumption used to price AI services.

AI tokens measure compute use inside models and are used to meter and price AI workloads. Official data show daily token use in China rose roughly 1,000-fold since the start of 2024 to more than 140 trillion tokens by the end of March. Higher token volumes have increased interest in financial products that can help data-center operators, cloud providers and AI developers manage cost swings.

A research note from Baocheng Futures estimates compute-related futures could arrive in three to five years but warns that a fragmented market for compute supply could complicate product launch and liquidity. In December, the country’s official commodity index company published several computer-supply indices that could serve as benchmarks for future contracts.

Calls for market tools have come from industry and researchers. Zhang Yunquan, a computing technology researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, proposed the launch of compute futures to parliament in March. Xiao Feng, chairman and chief executive of HashKey Group, described tokens as “the digital fuel or raw material powering AI models.” Several Chinese AI providers have rationed user access in recent months because of limited computing power, creating demand for hedging tools that lock in prices or spread exposure.

Global investors and asset managers are following tokenisation and compute derivatives as a potential new tradable sector. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told a conference earlier this month that rising demand for tokens could create “an entirely new asset class centered on futures linked to computing power.” How exchanges and regulators will define reference units, settle contracts and ensure market integrity remains unresolved. The Shanghai exchange’s work on AI-token futures remains in the research stage and any formal launch will depend on further market development, regulatory approvals and reliable benchmarks for token pricing and compute supply.