Scottish Mortgage Could Rise 63% on Cup-and-Handle Signal

Scottish Mortgage Trust, managed by Baillie Gifford, reached a record share price this week after a recovery that began from a May 2023 low of 604p. A weekly cup-and-handle chart pattern now points to a technical target of 2,475p, about 63% above current levels, based on the pattern’s measured depth. The pattern is derived from weekly data and could take months or years to complete.

Technical indicators show the share price has traded above both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages since a golden cross in July 2024. The cup’s low occurred in May 2023 and the price has moved to the upper rim of the cup, which is the reference point used to calculate the 2,475p projection.

The trust’s reported largest holding is SpaceX, a private company expected to list in June. Some analysts project a valuation above $1.5 trillion at IPO, and some market participants expect valuations above $2 trillion after listing. Scottish Mortgage has held SpaceX for several years and records additional exposure to artificial intelligence through SpaceX’s xAI integration.

Scottish Mortgage also holds stakes in companies involved in AI development and chip production. Its holdings include Amazon, which invested $8 billion in Anthropic, and a direct reported stake in Anthropic that accounts for about 2.6% of the portfolio. The trust lists positions in Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML, both central to chip manufacturing, and a stake in Stripe, which last raised capital at a valuation of more than $150 billion. Other sizable positions include MercadoLibre, Meta Platforms, Shopify and Wise.

Valuations for private companies in the trust are based on periodic valuations rather than continuous market prices; estimates and market-implied predictions for private-company values vary. The 2,475p figure reflects a technical chart measurement rather than a fundamental valuation. Actual outcomes will depend on market conditions, timing and pricing of private-company listings, and investor demand for growth and AI-linked equities.

Scottish Mortgage is an investment trust focused on long-term, concentrated holdings in technology and healthcare. The recent price advance follows multi-year gains in existing positions and a rebound from earlier drawdowns.