SanDisk falls 35% from peak; analysts keep bullish targets

SanDisk shares dropped to their lowest level since May 22 after sliding about 35% from this year’s high. The decline accelerated this week following similar losses at other memory suppliers, with the stock sliding from roughly $2,355 in June to about $1,510 in pre-market trading.

Several sell-side analysts retain high price targets. Susquehanna’s Mehdi Hosseini has the most aggressive target at $3,250, Bernstein’s target is $3,000 and Bank of America’s target is $2,500. Analyst coverage shows 19 firms rate the stock a buy and five rate it a hold; the average price target rose to $1,803 from $692 three months earlier.

Analysts point to rapid revenue gains as the basis for their forecasts. SanDisk reported quarterly revenue of $5.95 billion in the most recent quarter, up from $1.69 billion a year earlier, and nine‑month revenue of $11.28 billion versus $5.4 billion a year earlier. The consensus estimate used in coverage expects last quarter’s revenue to have climbed about 339% to $8.35 billion and the current quarter’s revenue to rise about 360% to $10.6 billion, compared with $7.2 billion in revenue for the prior fiscal year. Large cloud and device customers including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google are cited in demand forecasts.

On valuation, SanDisk’s trailing 12‑month price‑to‑earnings ratio is about 51 and the forward P/E is around 24. The forward PEG ratio used by analysts is near 0.13, reflecting expected earnings growth relative to the share price.

Market participants note familiar industry risk. The memory sector has moved between strong upcycles and sharp downturns: SanDisk’s revenue rose to $9.7 billion in 2022 from $5.5 billion in 2021, then fell to about $6 billion in 2023 as inventories built up. Changes in capital spending by major cloud customers are listed among factors that could affect demand.

Technical indicators show the stock retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, dropped below its 50‑day moving average and is trading near a pivot‑reverse level identified by Murrey Math Lines. Some technical analysts set a next downside target near the 50% retracement level at about $1,200. Market participants say the shares could rebound if hyperscale customers confirm sustained capital expenditure plans that support memory demand.

The company has not published new formal guidance in recent reports; analyst projections and the recent performance of peer companies are the primary drivers of the current range of price targets.