Oppenheimer sets $190 target for SpaceX, warns of volatility

Oppenheimer launched the first Wall Street coverage of SpaceX on Thursday, assigning the ticker SPCX and setting a $190 price target for the company’s upcoming IPO. The target is roughly 41% above the $135 per-share IPO price. The bank noted the listing was scheduled for Friday.

Oppenheimer cited a combination of capital, proprietary data, large language models, hardware and engineering talent as reasons for a bullish valuation. The firm described SpaceX as “the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent,” and added that the company could “leverage terrestrial compute expertise” to advance its systems. The note warned, however, that manufacturing challenges and execution risk could slow product rollouts and that investors should expect “extreme stock and operational volatility.”

Investor reactions varied ahead of the offer. Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC described the valuation as “richly valued” and said he would avoid participating in the IPO. NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran declined to take part, citing concerns about the company’s valuation and the $28.5 trillion market opportunity figure listed in the prospectus.

Regulatory and governance issues were raised before the listing. Senator Elizabeth Warren urged a delay to the IPO, warning investors could face “misleading” or “inaccurate” accounting around valuation and that the offering could expose shareholders to problematic governance arrangements.

Retail demand for the IPO was reported at about $70 billion, roughly $5 billion short of the $75 billion SpaceX aimed to raise through the offering. That level of retail orders was described as unusually large for an IPO. Underwriters and institutional investors were balancing allocations amid strong retail interest.

SpaceX’s prospectus presents a large market opportunity tied to satellite communications and future AI services. Oppenheimer said the company has the potential to be a major communications and AI provider if it can meet manufacturing timelines and complete network deployments, while emphasizing the potential for short-term stock swings and delays in operational milestones.