New-home sales rise 1.6% in June, beat forecasts
New-home sales rose 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 in June, topping forecasts of 609,000, the Census Bureau reported; sales were down 5.6% year over year.
The Census Bureau reported new-home sales rose 1.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000, above the 609,000 forecast. The June reading was up from May’s revised 618,000 but stood 5.6% below the same month a year earlier.
The series covers sales of newly constructed single-family homes across the United States. Economists often use a six-month moving average on the series to smooth month-to-month volatility and show the underlying trend.
Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in June 2026 was 6.49%, the highest monthly average since August 2025. The median sales price for a new home fell for a second consecutive month to $398,300, a 3.3% decline from May and 2.7% below June of last year.
After adjusting median prices for inflation using the CPI-U, the real median price of a new home is at its lowest level since 2014, with a monthly real decline of 3.0% and a 6.0% drop over the past year.
Analysts adjust new-home sales for population to assess demand relative to the pool of potential buyers. U.S. mid-month population estimates show an 82.2% increase since 1963. On a population-adjusted basis, new-home sales are down 41.7% from the series start in 1963, while raw single-family new-home sales are about 6.3% higher than in 1963.
Historically, the population-adjusted rate peaked at roughly 0.47% in July 2005 and hit a low near 0.09% in February 2011. Sales rose after 2011, peaked in late 2020, retracted for about two years, showed growth at the start of 2023 and have been largely flat since.
Market participants monitor related housing indicators for a broader view, including the Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, the NAHB housing market index, existing home sales, housing starts, building permits and pending home sales.
The Census Bureau new-home sales release, Freddie Mac mortgage data and CPI-U inflation adjustments form the basis for these measures and are used by economists and investors to evaluate demand, affordability and conditions in the construction and homebuilder sectors.
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